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The scores declined in 2014, the first year under Janet Yellen, Powell’s predecessor. During Yellen’s last three years the scores averaged around 16, roughly equivalent to a four-year university degree. Under Powell, that average has eased to about 15, above a high-school reading level but close to scores from before the recession vintage mikimoto cufflinks. Researchers have found evidence in the past that more complex Fed communications led to larger market swings. It is not clear, though, whether the recent drop in statement complexity has improved the public’s understanding of Fed actions and how financial markets interpret the statements..
“You would expect less volatility from a drop in complexity,” said Charles Calomiris, an economist and text mining expert at Columbia University, referring to the drop in the Flesch-Kincaid scores identified by Reuters. Calomiris stressed, however, that deciphering market movements and measuring what role recent changes in Fed’s language played was a complex task vintage mikimoto cufflinks. Market volatility has actually increased in recent months as investors grew less certain about the direction of the global economy and Fed policy..
For example, in December, Powell effectively reiterated past Fed guidance when he said the Fed’s plan to trim bond holdings was on “automatic pilot,” Still, stocks sank on disappointment that he did not indicate more flexibility. The reading grades calculated by Reuters closely tracked those found in a 2016 research paper by Dallas Fed economists who analyzed policy statements from 1994 through early 2014. They found larger market moves after statements with higher reading grade levels vintage mikimoto cufflinks.
David-Jan Jansen, an economist at the Dutch central bank, found evidence medium-term interest rates were less volatile after easier-to-read congressional testimonies by Fed chairmen. ‘It’s not just what you say. It’s how you say it,’ said Jansen vintage mikimoto cufflinks. Yet Jansen and Calomiris both noted one limitation of the readability analysis: It does not consider the meaning of the words being analyzed. Some researchers are trying to do this by counting word combinations associated with tighter or looser monetary policy. This research has focused on larger collections of texts, such as policy meeting minutes and speeches by central bankers..
A Fed spokesman declined to comment. Powell said on Feb. 6 that while policymakers try to craft the policy statement in language understood by Wall Street he fashioned his own remarks to be understood more broadly. “You just have to say it in a way that’s more accessible,” Powell said at a meeting with educators. Powell’s five opening statements have had an average reading grade level of 12, equivalent to the last year of U.S vintage mikimoto cufflinks. high school. Yellen’s last five opening statements averaged about 14, or two years of college..