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Fourth, we will continue conducting our lending operations as fixed-rate tender procedures with full allotment for as long as necessary, and at least until the end of the reserve maintenance period starting in March 2021. Today’s monetary policy decisions were taken to ensure that inflation remains on a sustained path toward levels that are below, but close to, 2 percent over the medium term. While there are signs that some of the idiosyncratic domestic factors dampening growth are starting to fade, the weakening in economic data points to a sizeable moderation in the pace of the economic expansion that will extend into the current year. The persistence of uncertainties related to geopolitical factors, the threat of protectionism and vulnerabilities in emerging markets appears to be leaving marks on economic sentiment. Moreover, underlying inflation continues to be muted. The weaker economic momentum is slowing the adjustment of inflation toward our aim. At the same time, supportive financing conditions, favorable labor market dynamics and rising wage growth continue to underpin the euro area expansion and gradually rising inflation pressures. Today’s decisions will support the further build-up of domestic price pressures and headline inflation developments over the medium term. Significant monetary policy stimulus will continue to be provided by our forward guidance on the key ECB interest rates, reinforced by the re-investments of the sizeable stock of acquired assets and the new series of TLTROs. In any event, the Governing Council stands ready to adjust all of its instruments, as appropriate, to ensure that inflation continues to move toward the Governing Council’s inflation aim in a sustained manner custom enamel cufflinks.
Let me now explain our assessment in greater detail, starting with the economic analysis. Euro area real GDP increased by 0.2 percent, quarter on quarter, in the fourth quarter of 2018, following growth of 0.1 percent in the third quarter. Incoming data have continued to be weak, in particular in the manufacturing sector, reflecting the slowdown in external demand compounded by some country and sector-specific factors. The impact of these factors is turning out to be somewhat longer-lasting, which suggests that the near-term growth outlook will be weaker than previously anticipated. Looking ahead, the effect of these adverse factors is expected to unwind custom enamel cufflinks. The euro area expansion will continue to be supported by favorable financing conditions, further employment gains and rising wages, and the ongoing – albeit somewhat slower – expansion in global activity..
This assessment is broadly reflected in the March 2019 ECB staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area. These projections foresee annual real GDP increasing by 1.1 percent in 2019, 1.6 percent in 2020 and 1.5 percent in 2021. Compared with the December 2018 Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections, the outlook for real GDP growth has been revised down substantially in 2019 and slightly in 2020 custom enamel cufflinks. The risks surrounding the euro area growth outlook are still tilted to the downside, on account of the persistence of uncertainties related to geopolitical factors, the threat of protectionism and vulnerabilities in emerging markets..
According to Eurostat’s flash estimate, euro area annual HICP inflation was 1.5 percent in February 2019, after 1.4 percent in January, reflecting somewhat higher energy and food price inflation custom enamel cufflinks. On the basis of current futures prices for oil, headline inflation is likely to remain at around current levels before declining toward the end of year. Measures of underlying inflation remain generally muted, but labor cost pressures have strengthened and broadened amid high levels of capacity utilization and tightening labor markets. Looking ahead, underlying inflation is expected to increase over the medium term, supported by our monetary policy measures, the ongoing economic expansion and rising wage growth..
This assessment is also broadly reflected in the March 2019 ECB staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area, which foresee annual HICP inflation at 1.2 percent in 2019, 1.5 percent in 2020 and 1.6 percent in 2021. Compared with the December 2018 Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections, the outlook for HICP inflation has been revised down across the projection horizon, reflecting in particular the more subdued near-term growth outlook. Turning to the monetary analysis, broad money (M3) growth decreased to 3.8 percent in January 2019, from 4.1 percent in December 2018. M3 growth continues to be backed by bank credit creation, notwithstanding a recent moderation in credit dynamics. The narrow monetary aggregate M1 remained the main contributor to broad money growth custom enamel cufflinks.